Soviet I-16 fighter with Chinese insignia. I-16 was the main fighter plane used by the Chinese Air Force and Soviet pilots in China 1937-41.
Let us refresh our minds about strategy by looking at the past. More specifically a battle just before WWII and how it compares to Stalingrad.
Have you ever heard about a battle in China 1938 called the battle of Taierzhuang? Probably not, am I right? But why on earth should this matter? Well, let me quote a single sentence from the book Taierzhuang 1938 - Stalingrad 1942 by Lance Olsen: "The major portion of Japan´s military might was - at all times from 1931 to 1945 - consumed in China".
Yes, at all times between 1931 (not 1939!) and 1945.
The battle of Taierzhuang in 1938 was the first major Chinese victory in the largely unknown (i.e. in the West) first stage of the Asian part of WWII. It is hard not to agree with Lance Olsen that Japan´s invasion of China, that started in 1931, spared the Soviet Union from having to fight a 2-front war. For, at the battle of Moscow 1941, had those reinforcements from Siberia not been able to come - WWII would have taken a different course - perhaps even a radically different course.
Lance Olsen has done serious students of WWII a great favour by revealing a huge blind spot in the western mainstream narrative of WWII. Read his book for a very refreshing take on WWII, and after having read it consider if we today are much better at taking into account how the balance in Asia counts not only in Asia.
Popular clip warning Ukrainians of civil war, NATO intervention (above you see German troops) and stressing the necessity of the Eurasian Union.
Imagine it was less than a year before the launch of the European Union but almost no journalists reported about it. Does that sound impossible? Well, I would argue that we in the EU member states and the United States are now living in that kind of media situation.
The 2013 mass protests in Ukraine resulted in thousands of news reports in English and hundreds in my native Swedish. A fair number of them mentioned the background of the EU’s Eastern Partnership versus the Russian-led Customs Union. Not that many mentioned the underlying vision of the Eurasian Union and, here is my point, only very few western media reports have explained what the Eurasian Union vision is, where it comes from and how close it is to being launched, i.e. January 1, 2015. The launch was again verified by Vladimir Putin himself, as a little Christmas present.
One of the few English-language journals to have realized the importance of the rise of the Eurasian Union is European Business Review (EBR). Shortly before Christmas EBR interviewed British Liberal MEP Sir Graham Watson, who frankly told EBR:
"One of the main problems with ENP [European Neighbourhood Policy] is Russia, and how we deal with the rise of the Eurasian Union, which has become the elephant in the room. We need to be cannier in how we respond to Russia's overtures to our Eastern neigbours which are likely to be in full gear from the Sochi Olympics up to the launch of Eurasian Union in January 2015."
Former German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor Joschka Fischer on December 31 commented under the headline "Europe’s Ukrainian Blunder" in a most undiplomatic manner, seeing threats to "post-Soviet order in Europe" and "a lot of violence".
Still, no big debate in "normal" media about the conflicting visions and projects of the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Union.
Well, today at least a leading political risk consultancy, the Eurasia Group, published some sound conclusions about Russia in its "Top Risks 2014" guide. I especially agree with "The implications of an all-powerful leader with a shrinking support base and a flair for the unpredictable are worrisome". The following I do not agree with: "Policy has already become more erratic and lacking in strategic vision". But that doesn´t at all change how valid I find this later recommendation: "Look for brash geopolitical behavior from Russia in 2014".
Finally, two of the most important Youtube clips from 2013 regarding the Eurasian Union, the first one (promoting the union as the only viable solution) both in Russian and with a voice-over in English (the clips are the same although the first images differ). The last clip, "Euromaidan Anthem", has subtitles in English and features some of the strongest images from Ukraine last year:
Russian Su-34 aircraft flew close to Sweden for the first time ever during the "Zapad" (West) drills in September.
Looking back at Sweden´s security in 2013 there occured serious events courtesy of the Russian Armed Forces that still, after many months, have not really been explained.
On April 22 the Swedish quality newspaper Svenska Dagbladet reported that two Russian Tu-22M3 nuclear-capable bomber aircraft escorted by four Su-27 fighters had performed night time drills about 35 kilometres from the Swedish border the night of March 29/30. Choosing to stage air drills with nuke bombers 35 kilometres from Sweden may sound serious enough, but several Swedish military sources have since stated that the Russian aircraft had also been simulating attacks on two military targets located inside Sweden, one near Stockholm and one in southern Sweden. The Swedish Air Force did not react. But two Danish F-16 fighters did.
"The lack of a reaction from the Swedish Air Force to the Russian exercises proves that this most important branch of the Swedish Armed Forces has structural problems and may be unable to cope with all the tasks it has been entrusted with."
And:
"Russia resumed flights of strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads in the High North in 2007 and in the Baltic region in 2011 (in international airspace). However, the manoeuvres of 29/30 March were probably the first Russian exercises to simulate a direct attack on Sweden since the end of the Cold War."
In September , during the larger-than-promised "Zapad" (West) drills, Russian Su-34 aircraft flew close to Sweden for the first time ever and the military of Belarus released a clip (see below) showing elite soldiers from Russia and Belarus confronting an unarmed Swedish Gripen (in recce configuration) that was observing the drills.
However, the Swedish government has still not really explained why, in its view, these most unusual events occured. The Russian Air Force could have chosen a billion other places for air drills with nuke bombers, yet for some reason chose an area a few heartbeats from Sweden.
Nor has our government, as far as I know, seriously commented on any of these events:
* Two Finnish presidents, one minister of defence and a number of Finnish defence experts have openly spoken out against Sweden´s lack of defence.
* Our closest neighbours, the Norwegians, have during 2013 enlarged conscription both in quality and for some units also in length of service.
* In late 2013 the new Norwegian government announced that it has ordered the establishment of a mostly professional rapid-response unit in Setermoen above the Arctic Circle.
* The Finnish Ministry of Defence in late 2013 confirmed that it wishes to purchase 100 Leopard tanks from the Netherlands in a version more modern than what Sweden has. BTW in 2012 Finland purchased missile systems more advanced than anything in the inventory of any other Nordic state.
Now, concerning the coming year, here are some less reported news items/analysis from 2013 that I believe will affect the world in 2014:
The russian Navy and elite soldiers from Russia and Belarus confronting an unarmed Swedish Gripen (in recce configuration) during the "Zapad" drills in the Baltic.
Being a Star Wars fan I of course had a good laugh at the witty response of the White House to the Death Star petition. BTW, Death Star is a bit vulgar, as true fans know. The actual name is DS-1 Orbital Battle Station...
To talk about something more serious but still Star Wars-sounding, I´d like to bring up A2/AD. Yes, it does sound like an uncle of a certain droid (R2-D2) but it is something very real that is driving military strategy, not least the strategy of the United States. What A2/AD means is anti-access/area denial weapons (capabilities) and I just read a great piece about their impact, in Foreign Affairs: "Strategy in a Time of Austerity". In the same issue (Nov/Dec 2012) there is an extremely topical article about US China strategy: "The Problem With the Pivot". The latter is a most interesting background to yesterday´s bad news from the East China Sea.
To my horror, things are going in that direction. Sweden, where I live, may be very distant from the East China Sea, but I do not think a degree in geopolitics, economics and military strategy (I have none of those BTW) is necessary to realize that the repercussions of even just a plane duel between China and Japan could be grave not only for the Pacific region. Such a duel now, sadly, seems quite plausible.
As is mentioned in the above linked article, the US Marine Corps detachment on Okinawa is not that far away from the centre of this dispute. As I wrote in Swedes at War there was a Swedish volunteer who took part in the final WWII battle for Okinawa. I met this gentleman, John Paul, in the 1980s and am later this year writing a book with a full chapter about his highly unusual experiences in China and in US naval service against Japan.
Looking back at 2012 I would say it again was a year of the rise of Asia and in particular China. As for my own work during this year, North Africa was a major focus.
The Syrian Civil War may evolve into something much worse. Another serious hotspot is of course Iran, and, as always, there is Israel and North Korea. The latter country is the subject of this year´s strongest book IMHO, Escape From Camp 14 by Blaine Harden. But for some reason I reckon that the East China Sea holds the greatest dangers during 2013.
In case we are fortunate enough that no new major wars break out in 2013 the world may still suffer greatly, perhaps as much as from war, by further inactivity in the field of energy, i.e. by not seriously going for alternative energy sources. Here the US, China and the EU probably hold the largest keys.
Moving away from things of global importance to my own work, in 2012 I was writing mostly on a book about a special forces unit in North Africa, Ghost Patrol. It was released a month ago. I also wrote several articles about more or less recent military history, one which was extra special, as it to a great extent was the result of exciting discoveries in the mountains by some very energetic readers of mine.
Speaking about readers, I only now found this study in English about Swedish volunteers in the International Brigades during the Spanish Civil War, partly based on Swedes at War. Well, in 2013 I will return to the subject of Swedish volunteers, first those in Finland and Norway in 1940, and then, in another book, all over Europe and Asia.
Goodbye 2012 and wishing all my readers a Happy New Year!
UPDATE DEC 30:
When I wrote the above I was not aware of this article re. the worsening security climate China-Japan.
P.S.
But, you may ask, what about a Swedish connection to Escape From Camp 14? Well, although the book makes no reference to Sweden or any other Nordic country, Sweden played a largely unknown role during the first combat phase of the still unfinished Korean War. There was both a Swedish field hospital where everyone wore US uniforms and in addition a handful of Swedish volunteers and many more Swedish Americans in US combat units. More about them in a coming book by me and Lennart Westberg. Although Escape From Camp 14 is not about a soldier but about a man born in a North Korean concentration camp, it does provide valuable insights also into Korean history. In addition, yours truly during four years lived right beside the North Korean embassy in Switzerland. This gave me several opportunities to learn about North Korea. I got to talk with several persons living inside the embassy, especially one Kim. It was, however, not the Kim now ruling North Korea, as he arrived in Switzerland only after I had left the country. Still, I have some idea about the wonderful environment where he spent some of his formative years. I tend to think those years must have done him and the world some kind of good.
