Norwegian UN troops on their way up Sniper Alley in Sarajevo, November 1995. PHOTO: Paalso
Many argued against more western involvement. Resistance was strong within both the US and the UN. But close to three hundred thousand people had been killed. Am I talking about the war in Syria? No, I am talking about another and not that distant war.
In the former Yugoslavia about three hundred thousand people were killed in the fighting between 1991 and 1995. The other day I heard that the total number of killed in Syria has now probably reached three hundred thousand. In other words, the Balkan kill level from 1995 has now been reached in Syria. I do not believe that the 1995 Bosnian intervention is a step-by-step instruction for what should be done now in Syria. But this I do believe: it would be an enormous waste to now not study what brought the war in Bosnia to an end. Some of the bloody Balkan lessons are still relevant. Sure, there are many important differences, not least IS(IS) and the New Cold War. But consider also how many different groups were a part of the Bosnian puzzle and how unstoppable the wars seemed.
One starting point is to pick up and read a copy of To End A War by chief negotiator Richard Holbrooke. This is my simple message to you: read it.
Popular clip warning Ukrainians of civil war, NATO intervention (above you see German troops) and stressing the necessity of the Eurasian Union.
Imagine it was less than a year before the launch of the European Union but almost no journalists reported about it. Does that sound impossible? Well, I would argue that we in the EU member states and the United States are now living in that kind of media situation.
The 2013 mass protests in Ukraine resulted in thousands of news reports in English and hundreds in my native Swedish. A fair number of them mentioned the background of the EU’s Eastern Partnership versus the Russian-led Customs Union. Not that many mentioned the underlying vision of the Eurasian Union and, here is my point, only very few western media reports have explained what the Eurasian Union vision is, where it comes from and how close it is to being launched, i.e. January 1, 2015. The launch was again verified by Vladimir Putin himself, as a little Christmas present.
One of the few English-language journals to have realized the importance of the rise of the Eurasian Union is European Business Review (EBR). Shortly before Christmas EBR interviewed British Liberal MEP Sir Graham Watson, who frankly told EBR:
"One of the main problems with ENP [European Neighbourhood Policy] is Russia, and how we deal with the rise of the Eurasian Union, which has become the elephant in the room. We need to be cannier in how we respond to Russia's overtures to our Eastern neigbours which are likely to be in full gear from the Sochi Olympics up to the launch of Eurasian Union in January 2015."
Former German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor Joschka Fischer on December 31 commented under the headline "Europe’s Ukrainian Blunder" in a most undiplomatic manner, seeing threats to "post-Soviet order in Europe" and "a lot of violence".
Still, no big debate in "normal" media about the conflicting visions and projects of the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Union.
Well, today at least a leading political risk consultancy, the Eurasia Group, published some sound conclusions about Russia in its "Top Risks 2014" guide. I especially agree with "The implications of an all-powerful leader with a shrinking support base and a flair for the unpredictable are worrisome". The following I do not agree with: "Policy has already become more erratic and lacking in strategic vision". But that doesn´t at all change how valid I find this later recommendation: "Look for brash geopolitical behavior from Russia in 2014".
Finally, two of the most important Youtube clips from 2013 regarding the Eurasian Union, the first one (promoting the union as the only viable solution) both in Russian and with a voice-over in English (the clips are the same although the first images differ). The last clip, "Euromaidan Anthem", has subtitles in English and features some of the strongest images from Ukraine last year:
Looking back at 2012 I would say it again was a year of the rise of Asia and in particular China. As for my own work during this year, North Africa was a major focus.
The Syrian Civil War may evolve into something much worse. Another serious hotspot is of course Iran, and, as always, there is Israel and North Korea. The latter country is the subject of this year´s strongest book IMHO, Escape From Camp 14 by Blaine Harden. But for some reason I reckon that the East China Sea holds the greatest dangers during 2013.
In case we are fortunate enough that no new major wars break out in 2013 the world may still suffer greatly, perhaps as much as from war, by further inactivity in the field of energy, i.e. by not seriously going for alternative energy sources. Here the US, China and the EU probably hold the largest keys.
Moving away from things of global importance to my own work, in 2012 I was writing mostly on a book about a special forces unit in North Africa, Ghost Patrol. It was released a month ago. I also wrote several articles about more or less recent military history, one which was extra special, as it to a great extent was the result of exciting discoveries in the mountains by some very energetic readers of mine.
Speaking about readers, I only now found this study in English about Swedish volunteers in the International Brigades during the Spanish Civil War, partly based on Swedes at War. Well, in 2013 I will return to the subject of Swedish volunteers, first those in Finland and Norway in 1940, and then, in another book, all over Europe and Asia.
Goodbye 2012 and wishing all my readers a Happy New Year!
UPDATE DEC 30:
When I wrote the above I was not aware of this article re. the worsening security climate China-Japan.
P.S.
But, you may ask, what about a Swedish connection to Escape From Camp 14? Well, although the book makes no reference to Sweden or any other Nordic country, Sweden played a largely unknown role during the first combat phase of the still unfinished Korean War. There was both a Swedish field hospital where everyone wore US uniforms and in addition a handful of Swedish volunteers and many more Swedish Americans in US combat units. More about them in a coming book by me and Lennart Westberg. Although Escape From Camp 14 is not about a soldier but about a man born in a North Korean concentration camp, it does provide valuable insights also into Korean history. In addition, yours truly during four years lived right beside the North Korean embassy in Switzerland. This gave me several opportunities to learn about North Korea. I got to talk with several persons living inside the embassy, especially one Kim. It was, however, not the Kim now ruling North Korea, as he arrived in Switzerland only after I had left the country. Still, I have some idea about the wonderful environment where he spent some of his formative years. I tend to think those years must have done him and the world some kind of good.
